By now, anyone keeping an eye on financial news will be aware that some sort of crisis took place in the repo market in late September. Although the general outline of the drama may be familiar to some of my readers, I suspect that the specifics remain unclear for most… and for good reasons. [...]
In the U.S., the ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 47.8 in September, the lowest since June 2009. Consensus was expecting an increase to 50. All major sub-indices, namely production, new orders and employment were in contraction territory in September, i.e. below 50. Separately, construction spending rose 0.1% in August, also disappointing consensus which was [...]
: US manufacturing PMI Bottom line: Worrying headline and composition, giving cause for the Fed to cut rates on September 18 … in spite of a torridly positive summer for the US consumer. Detail The US manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.1 in August, first time below 50 for three years. The employment component fell to [...]
What happened As you might know, Alberto Fernandez got 47% of the votes vs 32% of the incumbent Mauricio Macri in the primaries yesterday. The first round will take place October 27th and the second round if there is any on November 24th. The new president takes over December 10th. In order to win [...]
What is going on in the market right now and why is the stock market crashing? 10 year bonds over last 3 days. SPX last 3 days Fed ODDS from OIS market. Stock market in USA has crashed almost 5% in a matter of two days as the market is forcing FEDS hand to cut [...]
Having spent over 8+ years on sell-side in everything from middle office, front office quant, trading assistant and market-maker/trader I wanted to come up with a way for my subscribers to gauge what kind of compensation they should expect or look forward to on wall street. Sell-side Banks: The base is quite standard and [...]
Insurance against downside risk As expected, the Fed delivered a 25bp cut at today's July FOMC meeting and pulled up the end of the balance sheet runoff to August 1 from October 1. There were two hawkish dissents by Fed Presidents Rosengren and George who preferred to hold rates at 2.25-2.50%. Dissents aside, the Committee [...]
28 ½ bps priced in for tomorrow (and 104 bps by end of next year) based on from the OIS market. Yes PCE deflator was soft (1.4% headline, 1.6% core). but I think 25bps makes sense - despite ‘close to lower bound’ worries – simply because the economy is traveling OK and it may [...]
So, obviously with the great reviews of my last article about Sales and Trading I was bombarded by people to do one for IBanking. Now obviously I am not an IBanker so I reached out to my friends who are IBankers and professors in the area and got you guys the best of 30 different [...]
